August 22, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 25

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.52 8.49 3.00
Broncos 8.46 4.36 4.10
Raiders 5.02 9.94 -4.90
Panthers 4.19 6.08 -1.90
Sharks 2.69 5.84 -3.20
Cowboys 2.66 6.90 -4.20
Roosters 1.26 -1.17 2.40
Dragons -0.63 -7.74 7.10
Eels -0.79 -0.81 0.00
Rabbitohs -0.99 -1.82 0.80
Sea Eagles -1.69 -2.98 1.30
Wests Tigers -3.75 -3.89 0.10
Bulldogs -5.66 -1.34 -4.30
Warriors -6.79 -6.02 -0.80
Knights -8.60 -16.94 8.30
Titans -8.95 -0.98 -8.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Titans Aug 17 30 – 18 11.60 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Aug 18 36 – 18 8.20 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 18 24 – 12 12.70 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Storm Aug 19 12 – 44 -13.80 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 19 22 – 18 9.40 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Sharks Aug 19 16 – 26 6.00 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 20 22 – 26 5.90 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 20 30 – 16 -3.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 24 Broncos 12.70
2 Raiders vs. Knights Aug 25 Raiders 17.10
3 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 25 Cowboys -2.90
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs Aug 26 Titans 0.20
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Aug 26 Storm 16.00
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 26 Sharks 4.90
7 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 27 Sea Eagles -1.10
8 Panthers vs. Dragons Aug 27 Panthers 8.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »