August 15, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 24

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.10 8.49 1.60
Broncos 8.52 4.36 4.20
Raiders 5.81 9.94 -4.10
Cowboys 3.91 6.90 -3.00
Panthers 3.40 6.08 -2.70
Roosters 1.71 -1.17 2.90
Sharks 1.44 5.84 -4.40
Sea Eagles -0.35 -2.98 2.60
Dragons -0.69 -7.74 7.00
Eels -0.83 -0.81 -0.00
Rabbitohs -1.77 -1.82 0.00
Wests Tigers -4.19 -3.89 -0.30
Warriors -6.01 -6.02 0.00
Bulldogs -6.99 -1.34 -5.70
Knights -7.19 -16.94 9.70
Titans -8.92 -0.98 -7.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 10 28 – 14 7.70 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Knights Aug 11 10 – 29 15.00 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Aug 11 32 – 10 8.40 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 12 42 – 16 9.10 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Roosters Aug 12 16 – 13 13.60 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Aug 12 24 – 16 2.00 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 13 16 – 36 -5.50 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 13 30 – 26 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Titans Aug 17 Eels 11.60
2 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Aug 18 Rabbitohs 8.20
3 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 18 Broncos 12.70
4 Knights vs. Storm Aug 19 Storm -13.80
5 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 19 Roosters 9.40
6 Cowboys vs. Sharks Aug 19 Cowboys 6.00
7 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 20 Raiders 5.90
8 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 20 Sea Eagles -3.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »