Belated Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5
What Happened?
My apologies for the late predictions. Note first of all that they are exactly as I would have made them prior to the games being played because I just run my programs to implement the prediction algorithm. The results should help you believe that, I only got two correct.
Why did I miss this? I never expected such a schedule with some teams playing 3 games in 8 days, not to mention the Lions having only two games in 8 days apart and the Pumas only having to play 2 games.
Are there any more weeks like that? Surely this has been controversial in South Africa.
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheetahs | 5.66 | 4.33 | 1.30 |
| Lions | 5.25 | 7.41 | -2.20 |
| Sharks | 2.96 | 2.15 | 0.80 |
| Blue Bulls | 2.46 | 2.32 | 0.10 |
| Western Province | 1.91 | 3.30 | -1.40 |
| Pumas | -10.20 | -10.63 | 0.40 |
| Griquas | -10.78 | -11.62 | 0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blue Bulls vs. Sharks | Aug 09 | 20 – 28 | 5.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Pumas vs. Cheetahs | Aug 09 | 34 – 45 | -11.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Griquas vs. Western Province | Aug 09 | 44 – 34 | -9.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions vs. Sharks | Aug 12 | Lions | 6.80 |
| 2 | Western Province vs. Blue Bulls | Aug 12 | Western Province | 3.90 |
| 3 | Cheetahs vs. Griquas | Aug 12 | Cheetahs | 20.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »