NRL Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 9.57 | 8.49 | 1.10 |
| Cowboys | 5.79 | 6.90 | -1.10 |
| Sharks | 4.27 | 5.84 | -1.60 |
| Broncos | 3.76 | 4.36 | -0.60 |
| Raiders | 2.92 | 9.94 | -7.00 |
| Panthers | 2.58 | 6.08 | -3.50 |
| Roosters | 2.27 | -1.17 | 3.40 |
| Eels | 0.68 | -0.81 | 1.50 |
| Sea Eagles | -1.33 | -2.98 | 1.60 |
| Dragons | -1.45 | -7.74 | 6.30 |
| Rabbitohs | -2.85 | -1.82 | -1.00 |
| Warriors | -3.32 | -6.02 | 2.70 |
| Titans | -3.91 | -0.98 | -2.90 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.30 | -3.89 | -0.40 |
| Bulldogs | -5.42 | -1.34 | -4.10 |
| Knights | -11.30 | -16.94 | 5.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 152 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Bulldogs | Jul 27 | 16 – 8 | 12.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Sharks | Jul 28 | 12 – 26 | -1.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Eels vs. Broncos | Jul 28 | 28 – 14 | -2.10 | FALSE |
| 4 | Knights vs. Dragons | Jul 29 | 21 – 14 | -8.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Raiders | Jul 29 | 18 – 32 | -0.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Cowboys | Jul 29 | 22 – 16 | -1.20 | FALSE |
| 7 | Storm vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 30 | 40 – 6 | 10.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Titans vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 30 | 4 – 26 | 8.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Eels | Aug 03 | Eels | -2.60 |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 04 | Dragons | 4.90 |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Storm | Aug 04 | Storm | -0.30 |
| 4 | Knights vs. Warriors | Aug 05 | Warriors | -4.00 |
| 5 | Titans vs. Broncos | Aug 05 | Broncos | -4.20 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Aug 05 | Sharks | 4.90 |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Roosters | Aug 06 | Roosters | -0.10 |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 06 | Panthers | 10.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »