Super 18 Predictions for the Qualifiers
Team Ratings for the Qualifiers
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 17.12 | 13.22 | 3.90 |
| Lions | 14.57 | 7.64 | 6.90 |
| Crusaders | 13.83 | 8.75 | 5.10 |
| Highlanders | 11.28 | 9.17 | 2.10 |
| Chiefs | 9.88 | 9.75 | 0.10 |
| Brumbies | 2.30 | 3.83 | -1.50 |
| Stormers | 1.48 | 1.51 | -0.00 |
| Blues | -0.22 | -1.07 | 0.90 |
| Sharks | -0.26 | 0.42 | -0.70 |
| Waratahs | -3.81 | 5.81 | -9.60 |
| Bulls | -4.96 | 0.29 | -5.20 |
| Jaguares | -5.03 | -4.36 | -0.70 |
| Force | -6.97 | -9.45 | 2.50 |
| Cheetahs | -9.63 | -7.36 | -2.30 |
| Reds | -9.92 | -10.28 | 0.40 |
| Kings | -12.08 | -19.02 | 6.90 |
| Rebels | -15.29 | -8.17 | -7.10 |
| Sunwolves | -19.38 | -17.76 | -1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 135 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Reds | Jul 14 | 40 – 17 | 25.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Jaguares | Jul 14 | 29 – 32 | -6.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Kings vs. Cheetahs | Jul 14 | 20 – 21 | 1.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Sunwolves vs. Blues | Jul 15 | 48 – 21 | -20.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | Chiefs vs. Brumbies | Jul 15 | 28 – 10 | 10.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Hurricanes vs. Crusaders | Jul 15 | 31 – 22 | 6.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Force vs. Waratahs | Jul 15 | 40 – 11 | -3.60 | FALSE |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Lions | Jul 15 | 10 – 27 | -10.60 | TRUE |
| 9 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Jul 15 | 33 – 41 | -2.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Qualifiers
Here are the predictions for the Qualifiers. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brumbies vs. Hurricanes | Jul 21 | Hurricanes | -10.80 |
| 2 | Crusaders vs. Highlanders | Jul 22 | Crusaders | 6.10 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Sharks | Jul 22 | Lions | 18.30 |
| 4 | Stormers vs. Chiefs | Jul 22 | Chiefs | -4.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »