July 19, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.40 8.49 -1.10
Cowboys 6.45 6.90 -0.50
Broncos 3.58 4.36 -0.80
Panthers 2.97 6.08 -3.10
Sea Eagles 2.87 -2.98 5.80
Sharks 2.76 5.84 -3.10
Raiders 2.21 9.94 -7.70
Roosters 1.07 -1.17 2.20
Eels -0.41 -0.81 0.40
Rabbitohs -1.22 -1.82 0.60
Titans -1.60 -0.98 -0.60
Warriors -2.42 -6.02 3.60
Dragons -2.63 -7.74 5.10
Bulldogs -4.36 -1.34 -3.00
Wests Tigers -6.78 -3.89 -2.90
Knights -11.93 -16.94 5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 14 22 – 34 0.60 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 14 18 – 14 9.20 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Broncos Jul 15 22 – 34 -12.00 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Sharks Jul 15 30 – 10 -4.60 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jul 16 28 – 16 13.40 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 16 10 – 23 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 20 Broncos 11.40
2 Roosters vs. Knights Jul 21 Roosters 16.50
3 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Jul 21 Sharks 7.50
4 Panthers vs. Titans Jul 22 Panthers 8.10
5 Raiders vs. Storm Jul 22 Storm -1.70
6 Cowboys vs. Warriors Jul 22 Cowboys 12.90
7 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 23 Sea Eagles -2.00
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 23 Eels -2.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »