Super 18 Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Hurricanes | 16.96 | 13.22 | 3.70 |
Lions | 14.18 | 7.64 | 6.50 |
Crusaders | 13.98 | 8.75 | 5.20 |
Highlanders | 11.43 | 9.17 | 2.30 |
Chiefs | 9.45 | 9.75 | -0.30 |
Brumbies | 2.74 | 3.83 | -1.10 |
Blues | 2.65 | -1.07 | 3.70 |
Stormers | 1.14 | 1.51 | -0.40 |
Sharks | 0.12 | 0.42 | -0.30 |
Waratahs | -1.86 | 5.81 | -7.70 |
Bulls | -4.61 | 0.29 | -4.90 |
Jaguares | -4.81 | -4.36 | -0.50 |
Force | -8.93 | -9.45 | 0.50 |
Cheetahs | -9.77 | -7.36 | -2.40 |
Reds | -10.07 | -10.28 | 0.20 |
Kings | -11.94 | -19.02 | 7.10 |
Rebels | -15.51 | -8.17 | -7.30 |
Sunwolves | -22.26 | -17.76 | -4.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 126 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hurricanes vs. Chiefs | Jun 09 | 14 – 17 | 12.90 | FALSE |
2 | Reds vs. Brumbies | Jul 07 | 16 – 15 | -10.70 | FALSE |
3 | Force vs. Rebels | Jul 07 | 31 – 22 | 10.20 | TRUE |
4 | Waratahs vs. Jaguares | Jul 08 | 27 – 40 | 9.70 | FALSE |
5 | Bulls vs. Kings | Jul 08 | 30 – 31 | 12.40 | FALSE |
6 | Stormers vs. Sunwolves | Jul 08 | 52 – 15 | 26.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Highlanders vs. Reds | Jul 14 | Highlanders | 25.50 |
2 | Rebels vs. Jaguares | Jul 14 | Jaguares | -6.70 |
3 | Kings vs. Cheetahs | Jul 14 | Kings | 1.30 |
4 | Sunwolves vs. Blues | Jul 15 | Blues | -20.90 |
5 | Chiefs vs. Brumbies | Jul 15 | Chiefs | 10.70 |
6 | Hurricanes vs. Crusaders | Jul 15 | Hurricanes | 6.50 |
7 | Force vs. Waratahs | Jul 15 | Waratahs | -3.60 |
8 | Sharks vs. Lions | Jul 15 | Lions | -10.60 |
9 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Jul 15 | Stormers | -2.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Good day was wondering if you would be covering the Currie cup this season.
Regards
7 years ago
Yes. I am overseas at the moment but will get on to it before the first game, which I believe is on July 21
7 years ago