NRL Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 7.40 | 8.49 | -1.10 |
| Broncos | 6.01 | 4.36 | 1.60 |
| Cowboys | 4.35 | 6.90 | -2.60 |
| Roosters | 4.24 | -1.17 | 5.40 |
| Raiders | 3.89 | 9.94 | -6.10 |
| Panthers | 3.80 | 6.08 | -2.30 |
| Sea Eagles | 3.65 | -2.98 | 6.60 |
| Sharks | 1.80 | 5.84 | -4.00 |
| Warriors | -1.53 | -6.02 | 4.50 |
| Dragons | -2.40 | -7.74 | 5.30 |
| Eels | -2.50 | -0.81 | -1.70 |
| Rabbitohs | -3.08 | -1.82 | -1.30 |
| Bulldogs | -3.84 | -1.34 | -2.50 |
| Titans | -4.16 | -0.98 | -3.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -8.61 | -3.89 | -4.70 |
| Knights | -11.10 | -16.94 | 5.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 118 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors vs. Bulldogs | Jun 23 | 21 – 14 | 6.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Titans | Jun 23 | 14 – 26 | 1.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Panthers | Jun 24 | 14 – 12 | 4.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Broncos | Jun 24 | 20 – 30 | 3.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Storm | Jun 24 | 25 – 24 | 0.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Knights | Jun 25 | 32 – 28 | 13.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 25 | 18 – 35 | 5.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Bulldogs | Jun 29 | Eels | 4.80 |
| 2 | Titans vs. Dragons | Jun 30 | Titans | 1.70 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Storm | Jun 30 | Broncos | 2.10 |
| 4 | Roosters vs. Sharks | Jul 01 | Roosters | 5.90 |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Warriors | Jul 01 | Sea Eagles | 5.20 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Cowboys | Jul 01 | Raiders | 3.00 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 02 | Knights | 1.00 |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Panthers | Jul 02 | Panthers | -3.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »