Appropriate subdivisions

From Public Policy Polling on Twitter, a finding that voters are less likely to vote for a member of Congress if they supported the Republican anti-healthcare bill

The problem with this sort of claim, as we’ve seen for NZ examples in the past, is that more than 24% of voters already have ‘not in a million years’ as the baseline willingness-to-support for some candidates. Maybe this vote would just change that to `not in two million years’.

Since Public Policy Polling are a reputable survey company (even though I’m not a fan) , they publish detailed survey results (PDF).  In these results, they break down the healthcare question by self-reported vote in the 2016 election

And, as you’d expect, the detailed story is different.  People who voted for Clinton think the Republican healthcare bill is terrible; people who voted for Trump think it’s basically ok. The net 24% who might change their vote might be better described a mixture of a net 50% imaginary `loss’ of people who already weren’t voting Republican, and a net 20% imaginary `gain’ of people who already were.

What’s more striking than the 24% vs 48% overall percentage is that as many as 23% of Trump voters are willing to say something negative about the bill. Still, as an indication that even the hopeful news is unclear, consider this table

Only 13% of Trump voters prefer the current healthcare law, so the 23% who would penalise a Congressperson who voted for the new law includes at least 10% who actually prefer the new law or who aren’t sure.