May 30, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.97 13.22 4.70
Crusaders 14.19 8.75 5.40
Highlanders 11.22 9.17 2.10
Lions 9.87 7.64 2.20
Chiefs 8.35 9.75 -1.40
Blues 3.23 -1.07 4.30
Brumbies 3.00 3.83 -0.80
Sharks 1.52 0.42 1.10
Stormers 0.53 1.51 -1.00
Waratahs -0.36 5.81 -6.20
Bulls -5.20 0.29 -5.50
Jaguares -5.38 -4.36 -1.00
Force -8.90 -9.45 0.60
Cheetahs -9.83 -7.36 -2.50
Reds -11.35 -10.28 -1.10
Kings -12.44 -19.02 6.60
Rebels -15.14 -8.17 -7.00
Sunwolves -18.38 -17.76 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 111 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Chiefs May 26 16 – 16 -1.80 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Force May 26 26 – 40 3.10 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Cheetahs May 27 17 – 38 -2.30 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Waratahs May 27 44 – 28 15.50 TRUE
5 Rebels vs. Crusaders May 27 19 – 41 -25.80 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Hurricanes May 27 20 – 34 -19.90 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Stormers May 27 22 – 10 3.50 TRUE
8 Jaguares vs. Brumbies May 27 15 – 39 -1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Reds Jun 02 Blues 18.60
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 03 Crusaders 6.50
3 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Jun 03 Chiefs 12.70
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 03 Brumbies 21.60
5 Force vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 Hurricanes -22.90
6 Jaguares vs. Kings Jun 30 Jaguares 11.10
7 Lions vs. Sunwolves Jul 01 Lions 32.30
8 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Jul 01 Stormers -6.90
9 Sharks vs. Bulls Jul 01 Sharks 10.20

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments