May 23, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 18.33 13.22 5.10
Crusaders 14.42 8.75 5.70
Highlanders 11.19 9.17 2.00
Lions 9.87 7.64 2.20
Chiefs 8.46 9.75 -1.30
Blues 3.12 -1.07 4.20
Brumbies 1.66 3.83 -2.20
Stormers 1.04 1.51 -0.50
Sharks 1.00 0.42 0.60
Waratahs -0.33 5.81 -6.10
Jaguares -4.04 -4.36 0.30
Bulls -5.55 0.29 -5.80
Force -9.93 -9.45 -0.50
Reds -10.32 -10.28 -0.00
Cheetahs -10.95 -7.36 -3.60
Kings -12.44 -19.02 6.60
Rebels -15.37 -8.17 -7.20
Sunwolves -17.26 -17.76 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 102 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders May 19 24 – 31 -5.80 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Blues May 19 30 – 22 1.10 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs May 20 61 – 7 30.40 TRUE
4 Force vs. Highlanders May 20 6 – 55 -12.80 TRUE
5 Sunwolves vs. Sharks May 20 17 – 38 -13.30 TRUE
6 Kings vs. Brumbies May 20 10 – 19 -10.30 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Bulls May 20 51 – 14 16.50 TRUE
8 Waratahs vs. Rebels May 21 50 – 23 17.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Chiefs May 26 Chiefs -1.80
2 Reds vs. Force May 26 Reds 3.10
3 Sunwolves vs. Cheetahs May 27 Cheetahs -2.30
4 Highlanders vs. Waratahs May 27 Highlanders 15.50
5 Rebels vs. Crusaders May 27 Crusaders -25.80
6 Bulls vs. Hurricanes May 27 Hurricanes -19.90
7 Sharks vs. Stormers May 27 Sharks 3.50
8 Jaguares vs. Brumbies May 27 Brumbies -1.70
9 Lions vs. Kings May 28 Lions 25.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »