Super 18 Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 17.51 | 13.22 | 4.30 |
| Crusaders | 12.25 | 8.75 | 3.50 |
| Highlanders | 9.90 | 9.17 | 0.70 |
| Chiefs | 8.14 | 9.75 | -1.60 |
| Lions | 7.13 | 7.64 | -0.50 |
| Blues | 3.02 | -1.07 | 4.10 |
| Brumbies | 2.02 | 3.83 | -1.80 |
| Sharks | 0.67 | 0.42 | 0.20 |
| Stormers | 0.51 | 1.51 | -1.00 |
| Waratahs | -0.46 | 5.81 | -6.30 |
| Jaguares | -2.09 | -4.36 | 2.30 |
| Bulls | -2.87 | 0.29 | -3.20 |
| Force | -8.24 | -9.45 | 1.20 |
| Cheetahs | -10.20 | -7.36 | -2.80 |
| Reds | -10.20 | -10.28 | 0.10 |
| Rebels | -13.28 | -8.17 | -5.10 |
| Kings | -13.37 | -19.02 | 5.70 |
| Sunwolves | -17.55 | -17.76 | 0.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 79 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Stormers | Apr 28 | 57 – 14 | 9.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Chiefs vs. Sunwolves | Apr 29 | 27 – 20 | 32.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Reds vs. Waratahs | Apr 29 | 26 – 29 | -6.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Force vs. Lions | Apr 29 | 15 – 24 | -11.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cheetahs vs. Crusaders | Apr 29 | 21 – 48 | -17.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Kings vs. Rebels | Apr 29 | 44 – 3 | -1.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Jaguares vs. Sharks | Apr 29 | 25 – 33 | 2.50 | FALSE |
| 8 | Brumbies vs. Blues | Apr 30 | 12 – 18 | 4.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Stormers | May 05 | Hurricanes | 21.00 |
| 2 | Cheetahs vs. Highlanders | May 05 | Highlanders | -16.10 |
| 3 | Rebels vs. Lions | May 06 | Lions | -16.40 |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Reds | May 06 | Chiefs | 22.30 |
| 5 | Waratahs vs. Blues | May 06 | Waratahs | 0.50 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Force | May 06 | Sharks | 12.90 |
| 7 | Bulls vs. Crusaders | May 06 | Crusaders | -11.10 |
| 8 | Jaguares vs. Sunwolves | May 06 | Jaguares | 19.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »