NRL Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 8.20 | 8.49 | -0.30 |
| Raiders | 7.10 | 9.94 | -2.80 |
| Sharks | 6.40 | 5.84 | 0.60 |
| Broncos | 5.44 | 4.36 | 1.10 |
| Sea Eagles | 2.39 | -2.98 | 5.40 |
| Panthers | 0.50 | 6.08 | -5.60 |
| Eels | 0.42 | -0.81 | 1.20 |
| Dragons | 0.41 | -7.74 | 8.10 |
| Roosters | 0.14 | -1.17 | 1.30 |
| Cowboys | -0.23 | 6.90 | -7.10 |
| Titans | -1.16 | -0.98 | -0.20 |
| Bulldogs | -1.24 | -1.34 | 0.10 |
| Warriors | -4.47 | -6.02 | 1.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.93 | -3.89 | -1.00 |
| Rabbitohs | -5.89 | -1.82 | -4.10 |
| Knights | -15.13 | -16.94 | 1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 72 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Panthers | Apr 27 | 32 – 18 | 7.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 28 | 8 – 46 | 1.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Eels | Apr 28 | 6 – 26 | 7.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Knights | Apr 29 | 38 – 8 | 15.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Bulldogs vs. Raiders | Apr 29 | 16 – 10 | -6.90 | FALSE |
| 6 | Wests Tigers vs. Sharks | Apr 29 | 16 – 22 | -8.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Warriors vs. Roosters | Apr 30 | 14 – 13 | -1.00 | FALSE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Storm | Apr 30 | 22 – 34 | -2.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Cowboys | May 11 | Bulldogs | 2.50 |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Sharks | May 12 | Sharks | -2.50 |
| 3 | Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs | May 12 | Wests Tigers | 4.50 |
| 4 | Panthers vs. Warriors | May 13 | Panthers | 9.00 |
| 5 | Storm vs. Titans | May 13 | Storm | 12.90 |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Broncos | May 13 | Sea Eagles | 0.50 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Raiders | May 14 | Raiders | -18.70 |
| 8 | Roosters vs. Eels | May 14 | Roosters | 3.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »