Super 18 Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 16.86 | 13.22 | 3.60 |
| Chiefs | 10.16 | 9.75 | 0.40 |
| Crusaders | 9.42 | 8.75 | 0.70 |
| Highlanders | 8.29 | 9.17 | -0.90 |
| Lions | 7.10 | 7.64 | -0.50 |
| Stormers | 4.73 | 1.51 | 3.20 |
| Brumbies | 4.68 | 3.83 | 0.90 |
| Blues | 1.96 | -1.07 | 3.00 |
| Waratahs | 1.24 | 5.81 | -4.60 |
| Sharks | 1.05 | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| Jaguares | -1.48 | -4.36 | 2.90 |
| Bulls | -3.22 | 0.29 | -3.50 |
| Force | -8.75 | -9.45 | 0.70 |
| Cheetahs | -10.03 | -7.36 | -2.70 |
| Reds | -10.56 | -10.28 | -0.30 |
| Rebels | -12.72 | -8.17 | -4.60 |
| Kings | -17.24 | -19.02 | 1.80 |
| Sunwolves | -18.61 | -17.76 | -0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Waratahs | Apr 07 | 38 – 28 | 20.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sunwolves vs. Bulls | Apr 08 | 21 – 20 | -13.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Highlanders vs. Blues | Apr 08 | 26 – 20 | 10.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Reds | Apr 08 | 43 – 10 | 16.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Jaguares | Apr 08 | 18 – 13 | 6.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Chiefs | Apr 08 | 34 – 26 | -2.70 | FALSE |
| 7 | Force vs. Kings | Apr 09 | 46 – 41 | 13.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Sunwolves | Apr 14 | Crusaders | 32.00 |
| 2 | Reds vs. Kings | Apr 15 | Reds | 10.70 |
| 3 | Blues vs. Hurricanes | Apr 15 | Hurricanes | -11.40 |
| 4 | Rebels vs. Brumbies | Apr 15 | Brumbies | -13.90 |
| 5 | Cheetahs vs. Chiefs | Apr 15 | Chiefs | -16.20 |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Lions | Apr 15 | Stormers | 1.10 |
| 7 | Bulls vs. Jaguares | Apr 15 | Bulls | 2.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »