Super 18 Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 17.79 | 13.22 | 4.60 |
| Chiefs | 10.88 | 9.75 | 1.10 |
| Crusaders | 8.45 | 8.75 | -0.30 |
| Highlanders | 7.61 | 9.17 | -1.60 |
| Lions | 7.41 | 7.64 | -0.20 |
| Brumbies | 3.71 | 3.83 | -0.10 |
| Stormers | 2.36 | 1.51 | 0.90 |
| Blues | 2.04 | -1.07 | 3.10 |
| Waratahs | 1.55 | 5.81 | -4.30 |
| Sharks | 0.85 | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| Jaguares | -1.58 | -4.36 | 2.80 |
| Bulls | -2.46 | 0.29 | -2.70 |
| Cheetahs | -8.30 | -7.36 | -0.90 |
| Force | -8.57 | -9.45 | 0.90 |
| Reds | -9.87 | -10.28 | 0.40 |
| Rebels | -11.78 | -8.17 | -3.60 |
| Kings | -17.75 | -19.02 | 1.30 |
| Sunwolves | -19.45 | -17.76 | -1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Force | Mar 24 | 45 – 17 | 20.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Waratahs | Mar 24 | 25 – 32 | -10.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Blues vs. Bulls | Mar 25 | 38 – 14 | 6.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Highlanders | Mar 25 | 13 – 18 | 0.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sunwolves vs. Stormers | Mar 25 | 31 – 44 | -18.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Kings vs. Lions | Mar 25 | 19 – 42 | -21.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Cheetahs vs. Sharks | Mar 25 | 30 – 38 | -5.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Jaguares vs. Reds | Mar 25 | 22 – 8 | 12.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Rebels | Mar 31 | Highlanders | 23.40 |
| 2 | Blues vs. Force | Apr 01 | Blues | 14.60 |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Bulls | Apr 01 | Chiefs | 17.30 |
| 4 | Reds vs. Hurricanes | Apr 01 | Hurricanes | -23.70 |
| 5 | Stormers vs. Cheetahs | Apr 01 | Stormers | 14.20 |
| 6 | Lions vs. Sharks | Apr 01 | Lions | 10.10 |
| 7 | Waratahs vs. Crusaders | Apr 02 | Crusaders | -2.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Really hope the chiefs and hurricanes matches are safe to bet 13 & over on. Really hope.
8 years ago
It’s only good to bet 13+ and over against Rebels, Sun-wolves, Bulls, Cheetahs and Force. These teams will Guarantee you an awesome win
$10 will return will $147. If 2 top teams play off. Bet
(Either 7 and under and/or draw)
Top teams are;Chiefs vs Stormers,
Crusaders vs Jaguares, lions vs Hurricanes. The lower the score the higher the money.
7 under and/or draw.
Gamble responsibly. 😊
8 years ago