Super 18 Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 17.79 | 13.22 | 4.60 |
| Chiefs | 10.88 | 9.75 | 1.10 |
| Crusaders | 7.98 | 8.75 | -0.80 |
| Lions | 7.32 | 7.64 | -0.30 |
| Highlanders | 7.27 | 9.17 | -1.90 |
| Brumbies | 4.06 | 3.83 | 0.20 |
| Stormers | 2.68 | 1.51 | 1.20 |
| Waratahs | 1.75 | 5.81 | -4.10 |
| Blues | 0.98 | -1.07 | 2.10 |
| Sharks | 0.70 | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| Bulls | -1.40 | 0.29 | -1.70 |
| Jaguares | -1.70 | -4.36 | 2.70 |
| Force | -8.10 | -9.45 | 1.40 |
| Cheetahs | -8.14 | -7.36 | -0.80 |
| Reds | -9.75 | -10.28 | 0.50 |
| Rebels | -11.97 | -8.17 | -3.80 |
| Kings | -17.66 | -19.02 | 1.40 |
| Sunwolves | -19.78 | -17.76 | -2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 34 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Blues | Mar 17 | 33 – 24 | 10.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Chiefs | Mar 17 | 14 – 27 | -19.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bulls vs. Sunwolves | Mar 17 | 34 – 21 | 23.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Hurricanes vs. Highlanders | Mar 18 | 41 – 15 | 12.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Waratahs vs. Brumbies | Mar 18 | 12 – 28 | 3.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Lions vs. Reds | Mar 18 | 44 – 14 | 19.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Kings | Mar 18 | 19 – 17 | 24.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Jaguares vs. Cheetahs | Mar 18 | 41 – 14 | 8.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Force | Mar 24 | Crusaders | 20.10 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Waratahs | Mar 24 | Waratahs | -10.20 |
| 3 | Blues vs. Bulls | Mar 25 | Blues | 6.40 |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Highlanders | Mar 25 | Brumbies | 0.80 |
| 5 | Sunwolves vs. Stormers | Mar 25 | Stormers | -18.50 |
| 6 | Kings vs. Lions | Mar 25 | Lions | -21.50 |
| 7 | Cheetahs vs. Sharks | Mar 25 | Sharks | -5.30 |
| 8 | Jaguares vs. Reds | Mar 25 | Jaguares | 12.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Looks good! I wouldn’t bet on the predicted outcome of the Brumbies/Highlanders game though… ;-)
8 years ago
The suggested margin means it really could go either way
8 years ago
Your analysis basically picks the margin which is interesting , but your results do not show the margins results , which is not interesting/challenging. The correct success rate should be whether your model did better [true] or worse[false] than the predicted margins. Same goes for the NRL.
8 years ago
If you felt like doing this analysis and putting it up on the web, we’d probably link to it.
8 years ago
Hi David, have you ever looked into modelling for betting handicaps and totals? If so, what was your conclusion? If not, would you consider it?
8 years ago