March 14, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.88 8.49 0.40
Cowboys 7.46 6.90 0.60
Sharks 7.40 5.84 1.60
Raiders 7.04 9.94 -2.90
Panthers 5.37 6.08 -0.70
Broncos 5.15 4.36 0.80
Eels 1.27 -0.81 2.10
Roosters 0.12 -1.17 1.30
Bulldogs -1.22 -1.34 0.10
Rabbitohs -1.70 -1.82 0.10
Titans -3.77 -0.98 -2.80
Wests Tigers -4.67 -3.89 -0.80
Sea Eagles -5.52 -2.98 -2.50
Dragons -5.91 -7.74 1.80
Warriors -7.31 -6.02 -1.30
Knights -14.65 -16.94 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 43.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Mar 09 28 – 24 5.00 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Storm Mar 10 10 – 26 -11.30 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 10 20 – 21 1.70 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Titans Mar 11 34 – 26 -10.20 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 11 18 – 38 3.30 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Sharks Mar 11 16 – 42 8.30 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Mar 12 2 – 36 -1.70 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Eels Mar 12 16 – 34 -1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos Mar 16 Storm 7.20
2 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Mar 17 Bulldogs 10.10
3 Titans vs. Eels Mar 17 Eels -1.50
4 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Mar 18 Rabbitohs -9.50
5 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 18 Panthers 8.80
6 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Mar 18 Cowboys 16.50
7 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 19 Raiders 15.20
8 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 19 Sharks 16.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Corne Botha

    Hi David , i look at your predictions , this NRl according too Community Stats on superbru . Broncos 17 percent of users predict their win, Bulldogs will be a mini upset . If Titans beat Eels it will be a upset according too the people.

    I d isagree with you on the Raiders vs West Tigers game , Raiders is very weak , even they lost too Cronualla Sharks . So West Tigers is not a team too be underestimated.

    We will see what will be the outcomes , like i told you in Jaguars vs Lions game , i told you not too underestimate the Jaguars and boom Jaguars won at home .The Lions didn’t play too well in that game.

    8 years ago