Super 18 Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 17.67 | 13.22 | 4.40 |
| Chiefs | 10.59 | 9.75 | 0.80 |
| Crusaders | 8.84 | 8.75 | 0.10 |
| Highlanders | 8.06 | 9.17 | -1.10 |
| Lions | 7.90 | 7.64 | 0.30 |
| Waratahs | 4.27 | 5.81 | -1.50 |
| Brumbies | 3.33 | 3.83 | -0.50 |
| Stormers | 1.81 | 1.51 | 0.30 |
| Blues | 0.90 | -1.07 | 2.00 |
| Sharks | 0.69 | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| Bulls | -0.76 | 0.29 | -1.00 |
| Jaguares | -4.02 | -4.36 | 0.30 |
| Cheetahs | -6.31 | -7.36 | 1.10 |
| Force | -8.54 | -9.45 | 0.90 |
| Reds | -9.91 | -10.28 | 0.40 |
| Rebels | -12.37 | -8.17 | -4.20 |
| Kings | -18.14 | -19.02 | 0.90 |
| Sunwolves | -21.13 | -17.76 | -3.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Force vs. Reds | Mar 02 | 26 – 19 | 4.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Chiefs vs. Blues | Mar 03 | 41 – 26 | 12.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Rebels | Mar 04 | 71 – 6 | 29.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Highlanders vs. Crusaders | Mar 04 | 27 – 30 | 3.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Brumbies vs. Sharks | Mar 04 | 22 – 27 | 8.20 | FALSE |
| 6 | Sunwolves vs. Kings | Mar 04 | 23 – 37 | 3.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Lions vs. Waratahs | Mar 04 | 55 – 36 | 6.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Stormers vs. Jaguares | Mar 04 | 32 – 25 | 10.20 | TRUE |
| 9 | Cheetahs vs. Bulls | Mar 04 | 34 – 28 | -3.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Hurricanes | Mar 10 | Hurricanes | -3.60 |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Force | Mar 10 | Brumbies | 15.40 |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Waratahs | Mar 10 | Sharks | 0.40 |
| 4 | Blues vs. Highlanders | Mar 11 | Highlanders | -3.70 |
| 5 | Reds vs. Crusaders | Mar 11 | Crusaders | -14.70 |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Sunwolves | Mar 11 | Cheetahs | 18.80 |
| 7 | Kings vs. Stormers | Mar 11 | Stormers | -16.50 |
| 8 | Jaguares vs. Lions | Mar 11 | Lions | -7.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi , at the beginning of the tournament is very hard too predict the games . The Nrl is the same , allot of upsets happened in first round , like always .
8 years ago
True. The NRL is actually hard to predict at any time, there seem to often be large reversals of form. I have always had suspicions about how clean a competition it is.
8 years ago
Are you refering to match fixing?
8 years ago
Yes. I mentioned the difficulty of predicting the NRL compared to Super Rugby. It might be due to a very even competition. However there are other matters to consider.
There has been at least one prosecution for spot fixing (Ryan Tandy). You have the association of Kieran Foran with Eddie Hayson. Gambling is how players get sucked into fixing and I think gambling is a concern not just in the NRL but in AFL as well. I think it is pretty easy to allow an opposing team to score in the NRL. Just be a little late releasing the tackled player and the resulting penalty puts huge pressure on the defending team.
8 years ago
I see you said the same pred as mine in Jaguars vs Lions , but don’t write Jaguars off ,it is in Argentina , and they might upset the Lions , prevent them a win , look how they come back against the Stormers in second half .
That game is like 50/50.
8 years ago
Hi David, how is your Nrl predictions going for round 3 , i take a risk on Knights vs Titans game , i predicted Titans win , this was difficult game , it was 50/50 , i was wrong as usually , i play it on Superbr , allot of the games is killing me , i don’t know how too see these upsets.
8 years ago
Hi David, how is your Nrl predictions going for round 3 , i take a risk on Knights vs Titans game , i predicted Titans win , this was difficult game , it was 50/50 , i was wrong as usually , i play it on Superbr , allot of the games is killing me , i don’t know how too see these upsets.
8 years ago
My NRL predictions are not too good at all, under 50%. Last year they started at around 75% declining to 65% at the end of the year. My Super Rugby predictions started at less than 50% last year then recovered to 73% at the end.
Looking at this week’s results, Broncos v Cowboys was a golden point game which could easily have gone the other way. Two of the other games I predicted wrongly were ones were I had a very high probability of the result I predicted (Knights v Titans, Raiders v Sharks). Sharks and Panthers (especially the Panthers) were coming off losses the previous week which dropped their ratings. Wests Tigers on the other hand had won against the prediction. Bottom line: sporting outcomes are random and hard to predict.
8 years ago
I play superbru , i don’t get it how do people get on first place on global leaderboard , by predicting most of the matches correct and winning margin , you don’t want too know where i am sitting . i think most of ti can be luck .
8 years ago