Super 18 Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 15.56 | 13.22 | 2.30 |
| Chiefs | 10.47 | 9.75 | 0.70 |
| Highlanders | 8.45 | 9.17 | -0.70 |
| Crusaders | 8.45 | 8.75 | -0.30 |
| Lions | 7.13 | 7.64 | -0.50 |
| Waratahs | 5.05 | 5.81 | -0.80 |
| Brumbies | 4.12 | 3.83 | 0.30 |
| Stormers | 2.00 | 1.51 | 0.50 |
| Blues | 1.02 | -1.07 | 2.10 |
| Sharks | -0.10 | 0.42 | -0.50 |
| Bulls | -0.21 | 0.29 | -0.50 |
| Jaguares | -4.22 | -4.36 | 0.10 |
| Cheetahs | -6.85 | -7.36 | 0.50 |
| Force | -8.68 | -9.45 | 0.80 |
| Reds | -9.76 | -10.28 | 0.50 |
| Rebels | -10.26 | -8.17 | -2.10 |
| Kings | -19.16 | -19.02 | -0.10 |
| Sunwolves | -20.10 | -17.76 | -2.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 9 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rebels vs. Blues | Feb 23 | 18 – 56 | -3.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Highlanders vs. Chiefs | Feb 24 | 15 – 24 | 2.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Reds vs. Sharks | Feb 24 | 28 – 26 | -6.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Sunwolves vs. Hurricanes | Feb 25 | 17 – 83 | -27.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Crusaders vs. Brumbies | Feb 25 | 17 – 13 | 8.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Waratahs vs. Force | Feb 25 | 19 – 13 | 18.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Cheetahs vs. Lions | Feb 25 | 25 – 28 | -11.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | Kings vs. Jaguares | Feb 25 | 26 – 39 | -10.70 | TRUE |
| 9 | Stormers vs. Bulls | Feb 25 | 37 – 24 | 4.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Force vs. Reds | Mar 02 | Force | 4.60 |
| 2 | Chiefs vs. Blues | Mar 03 | Chiefs | 12.90 |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Rebels | Mar 04 | Hurricanes | 29.80 |
| 4 | Highlanders vs. Crusaders | Mar 04 | Highlanders | 3.50 |
| 5 | Brumbies vs. Sharks | Mar 04 | Brumbies | 8.20 |
| 6 | Sunwolves vs. Kings | Mar 04 | Sunwolves | 3.10 |
| 7 | Lions vs. Waratahs | Mar 04 | Lions | 6.10 |
| 8 | Stormers vs. Jaguares | Mar 04 | Stormers | 10.20 |
| 9 | Cheetahs vs. Bulls | Mar 04 | Bulls | -3.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Please send me your predictions re Superrugby
8 years ago
Sorry, I don’t do that. Just set up a feed of StatsChat where the subject is Sports statistics. Clearly others do that because I often see a number of people have read my posts after as little as two minutes from when I post them.
8 years ago
I like your informative weekly blog ..
8 years ago