Super 18 Predictions for Round 1
Team Ratings for Round 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 13.22 | 13.22 | -0.00 |
| Chiefs | 9.75 | 9.75 | -0.00 |
| Highlanders | 9.17 | 9.17 | 0.00 |
| Crusaders | 8.75 | 8.75 | 0.00 |
| Lions | 7.64 | 7.64 | 0.00 |
| Waratahs | 5.81 | 5.81 | -0.00 |
| Brumbies | 3.83 | 3.83 | 0.00 |
| Stormers | 1.51 | 1.51 | 0.00 |
| Sharks | 0.42 | 0.42 | -0.00 |
| Bulls | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.00 |
| Blues | -1.07 | -1.07 | 0.00 |
| Jaguares | -4.36 | -4.36 | -0.00 |
| Cheetahs | -7.36 | -7.36 | 0.00 |
| Rebels | -8.17 | -8.17 | -0.00 |
| Force | -9.45 | -9.45 | 0.00 |
| Reds | -10.28 | -10.28 | 0.00 |
| Sunwolves | -17.76 | -17.76 | 0.00 |
| Kings | -19.02 | -19.02 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rebels vs. Blues | Feb 23 | Blues | -3.10 |
| 2 | Highlanders vs. Chiefs | Feb 24 | Highlanders | 2.90 |
| 3 | Reds vs. Sharks | Feb 24 | Sharks | -6.70 |
| 4 | Sunwolves vs. Hurricanes | Feb 25 | Hurricanes | -27.00 |
| 5 | Crusaders vs. Brumbies | Feb 25 | Crusaders | 8.90 |
| 6 | Waratahs vs. Force | Feb 25 | Waratahs | 18.80 |
| 7 | Cheetahs vs. Lions | Feb 25 | Lions | -11.50 |
| 8 | Kings vs. Jaguares | Feb 25 | Jaguares | -10.70 |
| 9 | Stormers vs. Bulls | Feb 25 | Stormers | 4.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David – This is great, I’m going to try a more statistical approach to my selections….how do you calculate the team ratings to begin with?
8 years ago
I start from 2006 with all teams on zero. When new teams are added they get a ranking of -10, which is arbitrary, but seems to work ok.
8 years ago