November 10, 2016

Who voted for Trump?

From Charles Stewart on Twitter via Brendan Nyhan: vote by county

swing

Republicans.

Yes, from a campaign-strategy and political-science point of view there are important small changes that (together with Electoral College bias) explain why Clinton lost and Obama won.  Yes, Clinton won noticeably fewer votes in small counties, and this matters.  But, to first order, the same people voted for Trump as for Romney.

(more detailed graphs here)

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Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »