October 18, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.27 12.85 1.40
Tasman 9.18 8.71 0.50
Taranaki 8.78 8.25 0.50
Auckland 6.55 11.34 -4.80
Counties Manukau 6.15 2.45 3.70
Otago 0.63 0.54 0.10
Waikato -0.37 -4.31 3.90
Wellington -0.86 4.32 -5.20
North Harbour -3.39 -8.15 4.80
Manawatu -3.94 -6.71 2.80
Bay of Plenty -4.43 -5.54 1.10
Hawke’s Bay -5.76 1.85 -7.60
Northland -13.35 -19.37 6.00
Southland -16.96 -9.71 -7.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Tasman Oct 12 27 – 27 -8.30 FALSE
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 13 35 – 32 6.90 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Otago Oct 14 14 – 21 0.80 FALSE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Oct 15 33 – 21 -7.70 FALSE
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 15 24 – 26 3.70 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 15 24 – 28 5.20 FALSE
7 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 16 56 – 0 25.20 TRUE
8 Northland vs. North Harbour Oct 16 28 – 44 -3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 21 Otago 9.10
2 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 22 Wellington 6.50
3 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Oct 23 Canterbury 12.10
4 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 23 Taranaki 3.60

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »