NRL Predictions for the Grand Final
Team Ratings for the Grand Final
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 10.05 | -0.55 | 10.60 |
| Storm | 9.36 | 4.41 | 4.90 |
| Cowboys | 7.77 | 10.29 | -2.50 |
| Panthers | 6.14 | -3.06 | 9.20 |
| Sharks | 5.65 | -1.06 | 6.70 |
| Broncos | 5.20 | 9.81 | -4.60 |
| Roosters | -0.08 | 11.20 | -11.30 |
| Eels | -0.82 | -4.62 | 3.80 |
| Bulldogs | -1.03 | 1.50 | -2.50 |
| Titans | -1.31 | -8.39 | 7.10 |
| Rabbitohs | -1.55 | -1.20 | -0.30 |
| Sea Eagles | -2.83 | 0.36 | -3.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.05 | -4.06 | 0.00 |
| Warriors | -6.26 | -7.47 | 1.20 |
| Dragons | -7.44 | -0.10 | -7.30 |
| Knights | -17.13 | -5.41 | -11.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 200 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Cowboys | Sep 23 | 32 – 20 | -0.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | Storm vs. Raiders | Sep 24 | 14 – 12 | 2.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Grand Final
Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Note that because that is how it appears in the official fixture list, I have listed the Storm as the first team here which is normally the home team. I have treated the venue as neutral. If the Sharks are considered to have home ground advantage, the expected margin drops to 0.70, still a win to the Storm, but close to even money.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Sharks | Oct 02 | Storm | 3.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »