September 7, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.55 12.85 3.70
Auckland 9.26 11.34 -2.10
Taranaki 9.09 8.25 0.80
Tasman 6.35 8.71 -2.40
Counties Manukau 3.78 2.45 1.30
Wellington 2.37 4.32 -2.00
Otago 1.95 0.54 1.40
Waikato -2.91 -4.31 1.40
Hawke’s Bay -3.34 1.85 -5.20
Bay of Plenty -4.67 -5.54 0.90
North Harbour -6.57 -8.15 1.60
Manawatu -7.40 -6.71 -0.70
Southland -12.61 -9.71 -2.90
Northland -15.36 -19.37 4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 86.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Northland Aug 31 33 – 28 26.40 TRUE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 01 20 – 48 2.30 FALSE
3 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 02 16 – 51 -14.10 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 03 25 – 20 0.40 TRUE
5 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 03 21 – 17 14.90 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Canterbury Sep 03 34 – 52 -32.00 TRUE
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Sep 04 32 – 33 -4.90 TRUE
8 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 04 19 – 10 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Auckland Sep 07 Auckland -8.60
2 Taranaki vs. Southland Sep 08 Taranaki 25.70
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 09 Bay of Plenty 14.70
4 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 09 Counties Manukau 5.40
5 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Sep 10 North Harbour 4.80
6 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 10 Tasman -0.40
7 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 11 Canterbury 23.90
8 Auckland vs. Waikato Sep 11 Auckland 16.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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