Posts from August 2016 (44)

August 3, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

By

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 11.84 7.26 4.60
Chiefs 8.82 2.68 6.10
Highlanders 8.27 6.80 1.50
Crusaders 8.25 9.84 -1.60
Lions 6.74 -1.80 8.50
Waratahs 5.12 4.88 0.20
Brumbies 2.91 3.15 -0.20
Stormers 0.12 -0.62 0.70
Sharks -0.91 -1.64 0.70
Bulls -1.13 -0.74 -0.40
Blues -2.11 -5.51 3.40
Jaguares -7.37 -10.00 2.60
Cheetahs -9.10 -9.27 0.20
Rebels -9.53 -6.33 -3.20
Force -10.81 -8.43 -2.40
Reds -11.74 -9.81 -1.90
Sunwolves -20.76 -10.00 -10.80
Kings -21.84 -13.66 -8.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 141 matches played, 103 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 30 25 – 9 5.20 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Highlanders Jul 30 42 – 30 1.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Lions Aug 06 Hurricanes 9.10

 

View comments (5)

NRL Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.95 4.41 6.50
Cowboys 10.09 10.29 -0.20
Sharks 7.34 -1.06 8.40
Raiders 5.51 -0.55 6.10
Bulldogs 2.41 1.50 0.90
Broncos 1.49 9.81 -8.30
Sea Eagles 0.24 0.36 -0.10
Panthers 0.06 -3.06 3.10
Titans -0.34 -8.39 8.00
Roosters -0.67 11.20 -11.90
Warriors -1.67 -7.47 5.80
Eels -2.21 -4.62 2.40
Wests Tigers -2.28 -4.06 1.80
Dragons -5.68 -0.10 -5.60
Rabbitohs -8.47 -1.20 -7.30
Knights -15.11 -5.41 -9.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Jul 28 32 – 16 -1.60 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jul 29 13 – 10 12.40 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 30 20 – 17 2.10 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jul 30 8 – 23 6.00 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Storm Jul 30 8 – 16 3.80 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Jul 31 4 – 54 -5.00 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jul 31 36 – 16 18.00 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Sharks Aug 01 18 – 18 -5.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Broncos Aug 04 Broncos -4.20
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Aug 05 Eels 0.60
3 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 06 Bulldogs -14.50
4 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 06 Sharks 4.80
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Aug 06 Storm 22.40
6 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 07 Titans 5.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 07 Cowboys -9.40
8 Panthers vs. Roosters Aug 08 Panthers 3.70

 

August 1, 2016

Stat of the Week Competition: July 30 – August 5 2016

By

Each week, we would like to invite readers of Stats Chat to submit nominations for our Stat of the Week competition and be in with the chance to win an iTunes voucher.

Here’s how it works:

  • Anyone may add a comment on this post to nominate their Stat of the Week candidate before midday Friday August 5 2016.
  • Statistics can be bad, exemplary or fascinating.
  • The statistic must be in the NZ media during the period of July 30 – August 5 2016 inclusive.
  • Quote the statistic, when and where it was published and tell us why it should be our Stat of the Week.

Next Monday at midday we’ll announce the winner of this week’s Stat of the Week competition, and start a new one.

(more…)

Stat of the Week Competition Discussion: July 30 – August 5 2016

By

If you’d like to comment on or debate any of this week’s Stat of the Week nominations, please do so below!

« Later posts