Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 17.64 | 12.85 | 4.80 |
| Taranaki | 9.51 | 8.25 | 1.30 |
| Auckland | 7.38 | 11.34 | -4.00 |
| Tasman | 5.94 | 8.71 | -2.80 |
| Otago | 4.05 | 0.54 | 3.50 |
| Wellington | 3.35 | 4.32 | -1.00 |
| Counties Manukau | 1.05 | 2.45 | -1.40 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -0.61 | 1.85 | -2.50 |
| Waikato | -2.96 | -4.31 | 1.30 |
| Bay of Plenty | -4.85 | -5.54 | 0.70 |
| Manawatu | -7.34 | -6.71 | -0.60 |
| North Harbour | -7.55 | -8.15 | 0.60 |
| Southland | -10.73 | -9.71 | -1.00 |
| Northland | -18.37 | -19.37 | 1.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 14 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otago vs. Wellington | Aug 25 | 44 – 21 | 0.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Manawatu vs. Southland | Aug 26 | 34 – 31 | 8.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Auckland vs. Northland | Aug 26 | 37 – 15 | 31.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Waikato vs. North Harbour | Aug 27 | 26 – 15 | 8.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 27 | 55 – 28 | 11.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Canterbury vs. Tasman | Aug 28 | 45 – 14 | 12.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 28 | 39 – 34 | 11.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otago vs. Northland | Aug 31 | Otago | 26.40 |
| 2 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 01 | Hawke’s Bay | 2.30 |
| 3 | Southland vs. Auckland | Sep 02 | Auckland | -14.10 |
| 4 | Tasman vs. Taranaki | Sep 03 | Tasman | 0.40 |
| 5 | Wellington vs. North Harbour | Sep 03 | Wellington | 14.90 |
| 6 | Northland vs. Canterbury | Sep 03 | Canterbury | -32.00 |
| 7 | Bay of Plenty vs. Otago | Sep 04 | Otago | -4.90 |
| 8 | Waikato vs. Manawatu | Sep 04 | Waikato | 8.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Is there a reason you’re picking tasman over taranaki ? I would have thought taranaki
8 years ago
I apply a statistical algorithm. Computer says Tasman.
8 years ago
It’s by .4 of a point so it’s pretty close to 50:50.
Anyway, Tasman won, 25-20.
8 years ago
when do you put your weekly selections up and what time i hope its before the first game on wed
8 years ago
I usually aim for Wednesday morning. Maybe with Mitre 10 Cup on Wednesday I might go for Tuesday. Some anxiety amongst readers it seems.
8 years ago