August 24, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.96 12.85 3.10
Auckland 8.23 11.34 -3.10
Taranaki 8.09 8.25 -0.20
Tasman 7.62 8.71 -1.10
Wellington 5.36 4.32 1.00
Otago 2.04 0.54 1.50
Counties Manukau 1.59 2.45 -0.90
Hawke’s Bay 0.81 1.85 -1.00
Waikato -3.23 -4.31 1.10
Bay of Plenty -5.38 -5.54 0.20
Manawatu -6.86 -6.71 -0.10
North Harbour -7.29 -8.15 0.90
Southland -11.22 -9.71 -1.50
Northland -19.22 -19.37 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 18 20 – 17 -6.60 FALSE
2 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 19 27 – 34 -8.70 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 20 22 – 30 -9.80 TRUE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Aug 20 26 – 36 1.50 FALSE
5 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 20 43 – 3 5.50 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 17 – 40 -6.20 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Waikato Aug 21 24 – 19 17.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Wellington Aug 25 Otago 0.70
2 Manawatu vs. Southland Aug 26 Manawatu 8.40
3 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 26 Auckland 31.50
4 Waikato vs. North Harbour Aug 27 Waikato 8.10
5 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 27 Taranaki 11.30
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Aug 28 Canterbury 12.30
7 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 28 Counties Manukau 11.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Mike Hanley

    I usually take a multi-bet on all games over the round. I’m going to match my picks against these predictions.
    This round, I have the same picks except for Wellington over Otago

    8 years ago