NRL Predictions for Round 24
Team Ratings for Round 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 8.53 | 4.41 | 4.10 |
| Raiders | 7.90 | -0.55 | 8.50 |
| Cowboys | 7.28 | 10.29 | -3.00 |
| Sharks | 4.36 | -1.06 | 5.40 |
| Panthers | 2.75 | -3.06 | 5.80 |
| Broncos | 2.55 | 9.81 | -7.30 |
| Bulldogs | 2.28 | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.30 | 0.36 | -0.10 |
| Roosters | -0.46 | 11.20 | -11.70 |
| Titans | -1.04 | -8.39 | 7.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -1.18 | -4.06 | 2.90 |
| Warriors | -2.59 | -7.47 | 4.90 |
| Eels | -3.24 | -4.62 | 1.40 |
| Dragons | -4.12 | -0.10 | -4.00 |
| Rabbitohs | -5.01 | -1.20 | -3.80 |
| Knights | -16.62 | -5.41 | -11.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 168 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 11 | 20 – 16 | 5.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Eels | Aug 12 | 38 – 16 | 6.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Wests Tigers vs. Titans | Aug 13 | 18 – 19 | 3.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 13 | 22 – 41 | 10.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Sharks | Aug 13 | 32 – 18 | -8.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Knights vs. Panthers | Aug 14 | 6 – 42 | -13.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Cowboys | Aug 14 | 22 – 10 | -7.40 | FALSE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Storm | Aug 15 | 22 – 8 | 0.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 24
Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Bulldogs | Aug 18 | Broncos | 3.30 |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 19 | Panthers | 6.90 |
| 3 | Knights vs. Titans | Aug 20 | Titans | -12.60 |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Storm | Aug 20 | Storm | -5.20 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Warriors | Aug 20 | Cowboys | 13.90 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Eels | Aug 21 | Raiders | 14.10 |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Dragons | Aug 21 | Roosters | 6.70 |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Sharks | Aug 22 | Sharks | -6.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »