NRL Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 10.93 | 10.29 | 0.60 |
| Storm | 10.11 | 4.41 | 5.70 |
| Sharks | 7.79 | -1.06 | 8.80 |
| Bulldogs | 3.09 | 1.50 | 1.60 |
| Broncos | 2.71 | 9.81 | -7.10 |
| Raiders | 2.54 | -0.55 | 3.10 |
| Panthers | 0.13 | -3.06 | 3.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.08 | 0.36 | -0.30 |
| Eels | -0.77 | -4.62 | 3.90 |
| Titans | -0.79 | -8.39 | 7.60 |
| Warriors | -1.74 | -7.47 | 5.70 |
| Roosters | -1.89 | 11.20 | -13.10 |
| Wests Tigers | -3.72 | -4.06 | 0.30 |
| Rabbitohs | -5.50 | -1.20 | -4.30 |
| Dragons | -6.35 | -0.10 | -6.30 |
| Knights | -14.95 | -5.41 | -9.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Bulldogs | Jul 21 | 36 – 0 | 6.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Panthers | Jul 22 | 12 – 31 | 9.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Warriors | Jul 23 | 26 – 22 | 9.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Eels | Jul 23 | 34 – 14 | 0.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Storm vs. Roosters | Jul 23 | 26 – 10 | 14.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Knights | Jul 24 | 36 – 4 | 24.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 24 | 12 – 25 | -0.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 25 | 12 – 20 | -1.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Jul 28 | Broncos | -1.60 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Dragons | Jul 29 | Bulldogs | 12.40 |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Panthers | Jul 30 | Warriors | 2.10 |
| 4 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 30 | Eels | 6.00 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Storm | Jul 30 | Cowboys | 3.80 |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Raiders | Jul 31 | Raiders | -5.00 |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Knights | Jul 31 | Sea Eagles | 18.00 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Sharks | Aug 01 | Sharks | -5.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »