July 25, 2016
Briefly
- US election opinion polls are going to get less accurate for a few weeks, history suggests.
- The Guardian looks at Twitter abuse directed at politicians (contains abusive language)
- A PBS video about glow-worms — the StatsChat-relevant point is that glow worms are spread much more evenly and less randomly than stars
- The famous London Tube map, now with walking times between the stations (only stations on the same line, sadly)
- Emma Hart writes about the Broadcasting Standards Authority’s evidence-based ‘community standards’ at Public Address
- Interesting graph of income by occupation group in the US over time (Flowing Data)
- Why there are fewer PokemonGO locations in black neighbourhoods in the US. (They don’t actually mean ‘why’, they mean ‘how’ — if Nintendo wanted to change this they could have.)
XKCD on controlled comparisons (and PokemonGO)
Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »
The Pokemon Go locations stemming from Ingress has similar disparities in New Zealand- Pokemon Go locations seem to be clustered where Pakeha middle-class professionals spend their days. It is just that in NZ you are less likely to get shot for going into an area not demographically yours.
I would imagine that the company involved is getting very good geographic data at the moment on where its players are compared to where the game resources are.
8 years ago
US opinion polls being less accurate?, same goes for prediction analytics, as it seems ‘538’ is today , based on 20,000 simulations, has Trump at 53.8% ‘odds to win’ .The electoral votes were closer
Its even more bizarre when you see the odds for Trump 2 weeks ago were 18.4%.
Can 20,000 simulations be wrong !
8 years ago
No, that’s the ‘now-cast’. The *prediction* has Trump at 40.5%
8 years ago