July 20, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 9.50 7.26 2.20
Crusaders 9.28 9.84 -0.60
Highlanders 8.65 6.80 1.90
Chiefs 7.17 2.68 4.50
Waratahs 5.12 4.88 0.20
Lions 5.06 -1.80 6.90
Brumbies 3.18 3.15 0.00
Stormers 2.41 -0.62 3.00
Sharks 0.79 -1.64 2.40
Bulls -1.13 -0.74 -0.40
Blues -2.11 -5.51 3.40
Jaguares -7.37 -10.00 2.60
Cheetahs -9.10 -9.27 0.20
Rebels -9.53 -6.33 -3.20
Force -10.81 -8.43 -2.40
Reds -11.74 -9.81 -1.90
Sunwolves -20.76 -10.00 -10.80
Kings -21.84 -13.66 -8.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 135 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Waratahs Jul 15 34 – 28 -4.50 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Rebels Jul 15 28 – 31 1.90 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Sunwolves Jul 15 40 – 29 27.50 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 16 10 – 35 7.10 FALSE
5 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jul 16 25 – 15 4.30 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Force Jul 16 24 – 10 18.00 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Kings Jul 16 52 – 24 27.70 TRUE
8 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jul 16 17 – 43 -1.50 TRUE
9 Jaguares vs. Lions Jul 16 34 – 22 -11.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jul 22 Highlanders -1.50
2 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Jul 22 Hurricanes 12.70
3 Lions vs. Crusaders Jul 23 Crusaders -0.20
4 Stormers vs. Chiefs Jul 23 Chiefs -0.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »