July 13, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 11.21 9.84 1.40
Highlanders 8.31 6.80 1.50
Hurricanes 7.57 7.26 0.30
Chiefs 7.51 2.68 4.80
Lions 6.45 -1.80 8.30
Waratahs 5.75 4.88 0.90
Brumbies 3.42 3.15 0.30
Stormers 2.39 -0.62 3.00
Sharks 1.78 -1.64 3.40
Bulls -2.60 -0.74 -1.90
Blues -2.74 -5.51 2.80
Cheetahs -7.63 -9.27 1.60
Jaguares -8.76 -10.00 1.20
Rebels -9.82 -6.33 -3.50
Force -11.05 -8.43 -2.60
Reds -11.45 -9.81 -1.60
Sunwolves -21.76 -10.00 -11.80
Kings -21.82 -13.66 -8.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Jul 08 40 – 15 -5.90 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Chiefs Jul 08 5 – 50 -10.90 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Kings Jul 08 57 – 21 31.20 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Rebels Jul 09 85 – 26 20.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Jul 09 17 – 28 4.00 FALSE
6 Force vs. Stormers Jul 09 3 – 22 -8.10 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Sunwolves Jul 09 50 – 3 19.90 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Jul 09 26 – 10 12.50 TRUE
9 Jaguares vs. Highlanders Jul 09 8 – 34 -11.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Waratahs Jul 15 Waratahs -4.50
2 Reds vs. Rebels Jul 15 Reds 1.90
3 Sharks vs. Sunwolves Jul 15 Sharks 27.50
4 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 16 Crusaders 7.10
5 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jul 16 Highlanders 4.30
6 Brumbies vs. Force Jul 16 Brumbies 18.00
7 Stormers vs. Kings Jul 16 Stormers 27.70
8 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jul 16 Bulls -1.50
9 Jaguares vs. Lions Jul 16 Lions -11.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »