NRL Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 11.41 | 4.41 | 7.00 |
| Cowboys | 10.32 | 10.29 | 0.00 |
| Sharks | 5.92 | -1.06 | 7.00 |
| Bulldogs | 5.02 | 1.50 | 3.50 |
| Broncos | 3.55 | 9.81 | -6.30 |
| Raiders | 1.59 | -0.55 | 2.10 |
| Eels | 1.03 | -4.62 | 5.70 |
| Sea Eagles | -0.31 | 0.36 | -0.70 |
| Panthers | -1.28 | -3.06 | 1.80 |
| Roosters | -1.41 | 11.20 | -12.60 |
| Warriors | -2.22 | -7.47 | 5.20 |
| Titans | -3.70 | -8.39 | 4.70 |
| Dragons | -3.94 | -0.10 | -3.80 |
| Rabbitohs | -3.95 | -1.20 | -2.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.54 | -4.06 | -0.50 |
| Knights | -15.81 | -5.41 | -10.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 126 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Bulldogs | Jun 30 | 20 – 24 | -3.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Storm | Jul 01 | 6 – 48 | 0.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Titans | Jul 02 | 27 – 18 | 4.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Wests Tigers vs. Panthers | Jul 02 | 34 – 26 | -1.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Eels | Jul 02 | 34 – 24 | 7.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Knights | Jul 03 | 29 – 25 | 23.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys | Jul 03 | 0 – 20 | -9.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Dragons | Jul 04 | 36 – 6 | 3.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Roosters | Jul 08 | Eels | 5.40 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 09 | Bulldogs | 9.60 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Sharks | Jul 10 | Sharks | -4.20 |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Cowboys | Jul 11 | Cowboys | -5.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »