June 1, 2016
NRL Predictions for Round 13
Team Ratings for Round 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 10.74 | 10.29 | 0.40 |
| Broncos | 10.55 | 9.81 | 0.70 |
| Storm | 7.33 | 4.41 | 2.90 |
| Sharks | 6.19 | -1.06 | 7.20 |
| Bulldogs | 2.20 | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| Raiders | 1.89 | -0.55 | 2.40 |
| Roosters | 1.29 | 11.20 | -9.90 |
| Rabbitohs | -0.34 | -1.20 | 0.90 |
| Panthers | -0.43 | -3.06 | 2.60 |
| Sea Eagles | -0.48 | 0.36 | -0.80 |
| Eels | -0.56 | -4.62 | 4.10 |
| Dragons | -2.63 | -0.10 | -2.50 |
| Titans | -4.16 | -8.39 | 4.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -7.23 | -4.06 | -3.20 |
| Warriors | -7.72 | -7.47 | -0.30 |
| Knights | -14.97 | -5.41 | -9.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 92 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Wests Tigers | May 27 | 18 – 19 | 24.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Cowboys | May 28 | 14 – 10 | -12.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | May 29 | 32 – 20 | 1.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Knights vs. Eels | May 30 | 18 – 20 | -13.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raiders vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 03 | Raiders | 5.40 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Broncos | Jun 04 | Broncos | -14.30 |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Knights | Jun 04 | Cowboys | 28.70 |
| 4 | Storm vs. Panthers | Jun 04 | Storm | 10.80 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 05 | Roosters | 11.50 |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Titans | Jun 05 | Rabbitohs | 3.80 |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Sharks | Jun 06 | Sharks | -1.00 |