May 25, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Broncos 12.27 9.81 2.50
Cowboys 11.90 10.29 1.60
Storm 7.33 4.41 2.90
Sharks 6.19 -1.06 7.20
Bulldogs 2.97 1.50 1.50
Roosters 1.29 11.20 -9.90
Raiders 1.12 -0.55 1.70
Eels 0.22 -4.62 4.80
Rabbitohs -0.34 -1.20 0.90
Panthers -0.43 -3.06 2.60
Sea Eagles -0.48 0.36 -0.80
Dragons -3.79 -0.10 -3.70
Titans -4.16 -8.39 4.20
Warriors -7.72 -7.47 -0.30
Wests Tigers -8.95 -4.06 -4.90
Knights -15.75 -5.41 -10.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons May 19 34 – 24 2.40 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 20 19 – 18 2.90 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Knights May 21 20 – 12 10.10 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Raiders May 21 12 – 38 -1.50 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 21 20 – 12 10.00 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Titans May 22 24 – 28 8.50 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 22 32 – 20 3.50 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Storm May 23 6 – 18 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers May 27 Broncos 24.20
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys May 28 Cowboys -12.70
3 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 29 Raiders 1.10
4 Knights vs. Eels May 30 Eels -13.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »