NRL Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 12.11 | 9.81 | 2.30 |
| Cowboys | 12.06 | 10.29 | 1.80 |
| Storm | 6.67 | 4.41 | 2.30 |
| Sharks | 6.35 | -1.06 | 7.40 |
| Bulldogs | 2.36 | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| Roosters | 1.90 | 11.20 | -9.30 |
| Eels | 0.88 | -4.62 | 5.50 |
| Panthers | 0.45 | -3.06 | 3.50 |
| Raiders | -0.55 | -0.55 | 0.00 |
| Sea Eagles | -0.64 | 0.36 | -1.00 |
| Rabbitohs | -0.89 | -1.20 | 0.30 |
| Dragons | -3.24 | -0.10 | -3.10 |
| Titans | -5.04 | -8.39 | 3.30 |
| Warriors | -6.04 | -7.47 | 1.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -8.78 | -4.06 | -4.70 |
| Knights | -15.92 | -5.41 | -10.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Raiders | May 12 | 16 – 12 | -0.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | May 13 | 20 – 22 | 5.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Warriors | May 14 | 30 – 18 | 5.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Storm vs. Cowboys | May 14 | 15 – 14 | -6.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Broncos vs. Sea Eagles | May 14 | 30 – 6 | 14.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Knights vs. Sharks | May 15 | 0 – 62 | -12.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs | May 15 | 4 – 36 | -7.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Titans vs. Roosters | May 16 | 26 – 6 | -7.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Dragons | May 19 | Rabbitohs | 2.40 |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | May 20 | Cowboys | 2.90 |
| 3 | Wests Tigers vs. Knights | May 21 | Wests Tigers | 10.10 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Raiders | May 21 | Raiders | -1.50 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Sea Eagles | May 21 | Sharks | 10.00 |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Titans | May 22 | Panthers | 8.50 |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | May 22 | Bulldogs | 3.50 |
| 8 | Eels vs. Storm | May 23 | Storm | -2.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »