May 11, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 12

 

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.09 9.84 0.30
Hurricanes 7.09 7.26 -0.20
Highlanders 6.86 6.80 0.10
Chiefs 5.22 2.68 2.50
Waratahs 3.78 4.88 -1.10
Brumbies 2.75 3.15 -0.40
Stormers 1.62 -0.62 2.20
Sharks 1.29 -1.64 2.90
Lions 0.00 -1.80 1.80
Bulls -0.10 -0.74 0.60
Blues -3.68 -5.51 1.80
Rebels -5.29 -6.33 1.00
Cheetahs -7.08 -9.27 2.20
Jaguares -7.24 -10.00 2.80
Reds -9.61 -9.81 0.20
Force -10.87 -8.43 -2.40
Sunwolves -17.32 -10.00 -7.30
Kings -20.75 -13.66 -7.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Reds May 06 38 – 5 22.40 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Bulls May 06 23 – 6 5.50 TRUE
3 Sunwolves vs. Force May 07 22 – 40 -0.30 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders May 07 13 – 26 3.90 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Cheetahs May 07 21 – 6 14.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Hurricanes May 07 32 – 15 -4.40 FALSE
7 Kings vs. Blues May 07 18 – 34 -12.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 13 Highlanders 0.30
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies May 13 Brumbies -4.50
3 Hurricanes vs. Reds May 14 Hurricanes 20.70
4 Waratahs vs. Bulls May 14 Waratahs 7.90
5 Sunwolves vs. Stormers May 14 Stormers -14.90
6 Cheetahs vs. Kings May 14 Cheetahs 17.20
7 Lions vs. Blues May 14 Lions 7.70
8 Jaguares vs. Sharks May 14 Sharks -4.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »