May 4, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 12.60 10.29 2.30
Broncos 11.43 9.81 1.60
Storm 6.13 4.41 1.70
Roosters 3.78 11.20 -7.40
Sharks 3.11 -1.06 4.20
Eels 1.45 -4.62 6.10
Bulldogs 0.71 1.50 -0.80
Sea Eagles 0.05 0.36 -0.30
Panthers -0.02 -3.06 3.00
Raiders -0.20 -0.55 0.40
Rabbitohs -1.46 -1.20 -0.30
Dragons -3.59 -0.10 -3.50
Warriors -5.57 -7.47 1.90
Titans -6.92 -8.39 1.50
Wests Tigers -7.13 -4.06 -3.10
Knights -12.68 -5.41 -7.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Apr 28 22 – 30 7.90 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Bulldogs Apr 29 20 – 12 2.90 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Raiders Apr 30 19 – 18 0.00 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Knights Apr 30 38 – 0 16.50 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Apr 30 28 – 34 -10.20 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Dragons May 01 26 – 10 -0.20 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Storm May 01 0 – 38 -5.70 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Broncos May 01 30 – 28 -6.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Raiders May 12 Raiders -0.40
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs May 13 Eels 5.90
3 Panthers vs. Warriors May 14 Panthers 5.60
4 Storm vs. Cowboys May 14 Cowboys -6.50
5 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 14 Broncos 14.40
6 Knights vs. Sharks May 15 Sharks -12.80
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 15 Bulldogs -7.80
8 Titans vs. Roosters May 16 Roosters -7.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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