NRL Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 12.93 | 10.29 | 2.60 |
| Broncos | 12.04 | 9.81 | 2.20 |
| Storm | 3.96 | 4.41 | -0.50 |
| Sharks | 2.50 | -1.06 | 3.60 |
| Roosters | 2.31 | 11.20 | -8.90 |
| Bulldogs | 1.11 | 1.50 | -0.40 |
| Eels | 1.04 | -4.62 | 5.70 |
| Panthers | -0.10 | -3.06 | 3.00 |
| Raiders | -0.12 | -0.55 | 0.40 |
| Sea Eagles | -0.29 | 0.36 | -0.70 |
| Rabbitohs | -0.35 | -1.20 | 0.90 |
| Dragons | -2.46 | -0.10 | -2.40 |
| Titans | -4.75 | -8.39 | 3.60 |
| Warriors | -6.70 | -7.47 | 0.80 |
| Wests Tigers | -8.24 | -4.06 | -4.20 |
| Knights | -11.21 | -5.41 | -5.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 64 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 22 | 30 – 8 | 14.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | Apr 23 | 21 – 20 | 10.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 23 | 60 – 6 | 4.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Eels | Apr 23 | 32 – 16 | 14.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Panthers | Apr 24 | 20 – 18 | 6.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Knights vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 25 | 10 – 26 | -6.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Apr 25 | 20 – 18 | -5.90 | FALSE |
| 8 | Storm vs. Warriors | Apr 25 | 42 – 0 | 10.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 28 | Rabbitohs | 7.90 |
| 2 | Eels vs. Bulldogs | Apr 29 | Eels | 2.90 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Raiders | Apr 30 | Panthers | 0.00 |
| 4 | Roosters vs. Knights | Apr 30 | Roosters | 16.50 |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys | Apr 30 | Cowboys | -10.20 |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Dragons | May 01 | Dragons | -0.20 |
| 7 | Titans vs. Storm | May 01 | Storm | -5.70 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Broncos | May 01 | Broncos | -6.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »