April 20, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 12.83 10.29 2.50
Broncos 11.48 9.81 1.70
Roosters 2.88 11.20 -8.30
Sharks 2.84 -1.06 3.90
Storm 1.83 4.41 -2.60
Bulldogs 1.77 1.50 0.30
Eels 1.15 -4.62 5.80
Rabbitohs 0.21 -1.20 1.40
Panthers -0.44 -3.06 2.60
Sea Eagles -0.96 0.36 -1.30
Dragons -3.03 -0.10 -2.90
Raiders -3.37 -0.55 -2.80
Warriors -4.58 -7.47 2.90
Wests Tigers -4.99 -4.06 -0.90
Titans -5.41 -8.39 3.00
Knights -10.53 -5.41 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Apr 14 10 – 22 3.00 FALSE
2 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Apr 15 44 – 18 13.90 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Dragons Apr 16 14 – 19 1.60 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Apr 16 20 – 24 12.70 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Knights Apr 16 53 – 0 20.70 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 17 16 – 40 0.10 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Apr 17 18 – 19 -4.40 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Panthers Apr 18 16 – 20 8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Apr 22 Broncos 14.30
2 Bulldogs vs. Titans Apr 23 Bulldogs 10.20
3 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Apr 23 Raiders 4.60
4 Cowboys vs. Eels Apr 23 Cowboys 14.70
5 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 24 Sharks 6.30
6 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 25 Sea Eagles -6.60
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Roosters -5.90
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 10.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »