April 6, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.97 9.84 -0.90
Highlanders 7.10 6.80 0.30
Chiefs 7.07 2.68 4.40
Hurricanes 5.64 7.26 -1.60
Brumbies 3.47 3.15 0.30
Waratahs 2.30 4.88 -2.60
Stormers 1.48 -0.62 2.10
Sharks 0.10 -1.64 1.70
Lions -0.74 -1.80 1.10
Bulls -2.00 -0.74 -1.30
Blues -4.72 -5.51 0.80
Rebels -5.31 -6.33 1.00
Jaguares -8.69 -10.00 1.30
Cheetahs -9.21 -9.27 0.10
Reds -10.01 -9.81 -0.20
Force -10.16 -8.43 -1.70
Sunwolves -12.43 -10.00 -2.40
Kings -16.08 -13.66 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Force Apr 01 32 – 20 22.50 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Crusaders Apr 01 37 – 43 -5.70 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Jaguares Apr 02 24 – 16 8.00 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Apr 02 23 – 48 3.90 FALSE
5 Kings vs. Sunwolves Apr 02 33 – 28 -0.30 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Apr 02 23 – 18 11.50 TRUE
7 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 03 17 – 21 13.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 08 Chiefs 15.30
2 Force vs. Crusaders Apr 08 Crusaders -15.10
3 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Apr 08 Stormers 17.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Jaguares Apr 09 Hurricanes 18.30
5 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 09 Highlanders -13.10
6 Sharks vs. Lions Apr 09 Sharks 4.30
7 Kings vs. Bulls Apr 09 Bulls -10.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »