April 6, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 12.42 10.29 2.10
Broncos 8.47 9.81 -1.30
Roosters 3.11 11.20 -8.10
Storm 2.78 4.41 -1.60
Bulldogs 2.25 1.50 0.80
Rabbitohs 1.67 -1.20 2.90
Sharks 1.59 -1.06 2.60
Raiders 0.23 -0.55 0.80
Sea Eagles -1.06 0.36 -1.40
Panthers -1.74 -3.06 1.30
Eels -1.87 -4.62 2.80
Dragons -2.67 -0.10 -2.60
Warriors -4.59 -7.47 2.90
Wests Tigers -5.05 -4.06 -1.00
Titans -5.32 -8.39 3.10
Knights -8.56 -5.41 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 31 12 – 16 1.10 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 01 16 – 24 -11.30 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Knights Apr 02 18 – 14 16.00 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Apr 02 26 – 34 -2.80 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Dragons Apr 02 36 – 0 15.20 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Apr 03 28 – 32 14.20 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Panthers Apr 03 18 – 20 3.80 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Apr 04 8 – 22 8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Dragons Apr 07 Broncos 14.10
2 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Apr 08 Rabbitohs 1.60
3 Eels vs. Raiders Apr 09 Eels 0.90
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Apr 09 Warriors 0.50
5 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 09 Cowboys -11.20
6 Sharks vs. Titans Apr 10 Sharks 9.90
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Apr 10 Wests Tigers -0.50
8 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 11 Storm 3.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »