Posts from March 2016 (44)

Q: So the Herald headline asks “Could this drug stop hair going grey?” Could it?

A: Which drug?

Q: The one in the story?

A: There isn’t a drug in the story.

Q: Ok, what is in the story and why do the Herald and the Daily Telegraph think it’s a drug?

A: There’s a gene. Called IRF4

Q: So people can be given this gene and their hair will stop going grey?

A: No, everyone already has this gene. That’s how genes work.

Q: You know what I mean. The version of the gene that stops greying; are the scientists are going to give people that?

A: No.

Q: What, then?

A: “They are confident that it will be possible to produce drugs or cosmetics to switch it off.”

Q: How confident should I be?

A: Well, we’ve known one of the gene responsible for baldness for about a decade…

Q: So I shouldn’t hold my breath. How much of hair greyness does this genetic variant explain?

A: Among people old enough for it to matter, about 0.1 points on a 5-point scale where most people were 1 or 2.

Q: That doesn’t sound like that much.

A: A lot more of the hair greyness seemed to be genetic, just not explained by that one genetic variant

Q: Doesn’t that make it worse for trying to make drugs?

A: Yes, but more interesting for science

Q: I think you have your priorities wrong.

A: Then you won’t be interested in the stories that talk about the real point of the research and its findings.

• From STAT news, a story about doctors who promote treatments on Twitter without disclosing significant conflicts of interest. “Simon said the extensive work he does for drug companies, including helping them develop drugs, would be too long to include as a disclosure in social media.”
  (At the other extreme, Stephen Senn’s disclosure statement)

• This (good) Huffington Post story about good and bad ways to give away large sums of money has an.. um..unique graphic about halfway through
  The bunch of children on the right represent donation by the Ford Foundation; the guy on the left represents payments to consultants. The blue and brown flowers are actually coins, and they surge up and down in the silhouettes in what must be intended to be a helpful way? (via @felixsalmon)

• Errors in data: in China, all the maps and GPS are wrong

• Overly-sensitive tests: assays for cocaine: a US drug labs was asked to develop a forensic test for cocaine on money that could be used as evidence against drug traffickers. The test worked, but it returned positive results on seven of 21 random samples of destroyed $50 notes removed from circulation.

• There was a widely circulated story (Guardian, Fusion) reporting a study that showed women on Github wrote better code but were less likely to have it accepted. The truth is more complicated: here’s one discussion including the key graph. (via Heather Piwowar)

• The Newmarket Business Association has released a poll on the flag referendum where they surveyed “Newmarket residents, commuters, and workers”.  They found 40% support for the new flag,  but didn’t explain why anyone would care about their particular sample.

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 44.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.