NRL Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 11.02 | 10.29 | 0.70 |
| Broncos | 8.71 | 9.81 | -1.10 |
| Roosters | 5.20 | 11.20 | -6.00 |
| Storm | 4.25 | 4.41 | -0.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 3.63 | -1.20 | 4.80 |
| Bulldogs | 1.40 | 1.50 | -0.10 |
| Sharks | 0.55 | -1.06 | 1.60 |
| Raiders | -0.35 | -0.55 | 0.20 |
| Dragons | -1.06 | -0.10 | -1.00 |
| Sea Eagles | -1.48 | 0.36 | -1.80 |
| Eels | -2.05 | -4.62 | 2.60 |
| Panthers | -2.39 | -3.06 | 0.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -3.99 | -4.06 | 0.10 |
| Titans | -6.51 | -8.39 | 1.90 |
| Warriors | -7.02 | -7.47 | 0.40 |
| Knights | -8.24 | -5.41 | -2.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Roosters | Mar 17 | 40 – 0 | 4.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Eels | Mar 18 | 6 – 20 | 9.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Knights vs. Raiders | Mar 19 | 24 – 24 | -5.80 | FALSE |
| 4 | Panthers vs. Broncos | Mar 19 | 23 – 22 | -9.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 19 | 30 – 18 | -1.40 | FALSE |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Storm | Mar 20 | 14 – 21 | -7.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 20 | 8 – 6 | -2.40 | FALSE |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Sharks | Mar 21 | 22 – 12 | -0.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Mar 25 | Rabbitohs | 5.20 |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Mar 25 | Broncos | 0.70 |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Titans | Mar 26 | Raiders | 9.20 |
| 4 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 26 | Roosters | 9.70 |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Panthers | Mar 27 | Dragons | 4.30 |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Knights | Mar 28 | Warriors | 5.20 |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Eels | Mar 28 | Wests Tigers | 1.10 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Storm | Mar 28 | Storm | -0.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »