Super 18 Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 8.71 | 9.84 | -1.10 |
| Brumbies | 6.82 | 3.15 | 3.70 |
| Highlanders | 6.43 | 6.80 | -0.40 |
| Hurricanes | 4.83 | 7.26 | -2.40 |
| Waratahs | 4.22 | 4.88 | -0.70 |
| Chiefs | 4.09 | 2.68 | 1.40 |
| Stormers | 0.20 | -0.62 | 0.80 |
| Sharks | -0.03 | -1.64 | 1.60 |
| Lions | -1.01 | -1.80 | 0.80 |
| Bulls | -1.24 | -0.74 | -0.50 |
| Blues | -4.60 | -5.51 | 0.90 |
| Rebels | -6.97 | -6.33 | -0.60 |
| Force | -8.15 | -8.43 | 0.30 |
| Jaguares | -9.08 | -10.00 | 0.90 |
| Cheetahs | -9.56 | -9.27 | -0.30 |
| Reds | -10.67 | -9.81 | -0.90 |
| Sunwolves | -10.79 | -10.00 | -0.80 |
| Kings | -16.44 | -13.66 | -2.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Hurricanes | Mar 11 | 19 – 23 | -6.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Force vs. Brumbies | Mar 11 | 14 – 31 | -10.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Highlanders vs. Lions | Mar 12 | 34 – 15 | 10.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Rebels vs. Reds | Mar 12 | 25 – 23 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sunwolves vs. Cheetahs | Mar 12 | 31 – 32 | 3.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Kings vs. Chiefs | Mar 12 | 24 – 58 | -14.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stormers vs. Sharks | Mar 12 | 13 – 18 | 4.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Force | Mar 18 | Hurricanes | 17.00 |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Highlanders | Mar 18 | Waratahs | 1.80 |
| 3 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Mar 18 | Bulls | 2.30 |
| 4 | Sunwolves vs. Rebels | Mar 19 | Sunwolves | 0.20 |
| 5 | Crusaders vs. Kings | Mar 19 | Crusaders | 29.10 |
| 6 | Reds vs. Blues | Mar 19 | Blues | -2.10 |
| 7 | Lions vs. Cheetahs | Mar 19 | Lions | 12.00 |
| 8 | Stormers vs. Brumbies | Mar 19 | Brumbies | -2.60 |
| 9 | Jaguares vs. Chiefs | Mar 19 | Chiefs | -9.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
There’s no point giving a success rate of wins when you are predicting the handicaps .
I think you need to wake up
Do it right for a change .
9 years ago
Perhaps you could clarify as to why there’s no point in predicting wins this way?
9 years ago
I have no idea what you are talking about. Predicting the handicaps?
9 years ago