March 9, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.71 9.84 -1.10
Brumbies 6.44 3.15 3.30
Highlanders 5.92 6.80 -0.90
Hurricanes 4.97 7.26 -2.30
Waratahs 4.22 4.88 -0.70
Chiefs 2.90 2.68 0.20
Stormers 0.80 -0.62 1.40
Lions -0.50 -1.80 1.30
Sharks -0.63 -1.64 1.00
Bulls -1.24 -0.74 -0.50
Blues -4.73 -5.51 0.80
Rebels -6.61 -6.33 -0.30
Force -7.77 -8.43 0.70
Jaguares -9.08 -10.00 0.90
Cheetahs -9.81 -9.27 -0.50
Sunwolves -10.53 -10.00 -0.50
Reds -11.03 -9.81 -1.20
Kings -15.25 -13.66 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 17 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Mar 04 28 – 13 17.20 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 04 32 – 15 4.20 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Lions Mar 05 32 – 36 9.00 FALSE
4 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 05 17 – 16 4.90 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Force Mar 05 6 – 22 2.50 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Rebels Mar 05 45 – 25 7.90 TRUE
7 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Mar 05 10 – 20 -6.70 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Jaguares Mar 05 19 – 15 13.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes Mar 11 Hurricanes -6.20
2 Force vs. Brumbies Mar 11 Brumbies -10.70
3 Highlanders vs. Lions Mar 12 Highlanders 10.40
4 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 12 Rebels 7.90
5 Sunwolves vs. Cheetahs Mar 12 Sunwolves 3.30
6 Kings vs. Chiefs Mar 12 Chiefs -14.10
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 12 Stormers 4.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »