March 9, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Broncos 9.93 9.81 0.10
Cowboys 9.69 10.29 -0.60
Roosters 8.07 11.20 -3.10
Storm 3.97 4.41 -0.40
Bulldogs 3.13 1.50 1.60
Rabbitohs 1.93 -1.20 3.10
Dragons 0.34 -0.10 0.40
Raiders -0.35 -0.55 0.20
Sharks -0.46 -1.06 0.60
Sea Eagles -1.26 0.36 -1.60
Panthers -3.26 -3.06 -0.20
Wests Tigers -4.01 -4.06 0.00
Eels -4.75 -4.62 -0.10
Knights -6.66 -5.41 -1.20
Titans -7.14 -8.39 1.20
Warriors -7.51 -7.47 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Broncos Mar 03 4 – 17 -11.40 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 04 6 – 28 1.90 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Panthers Mar 05 30 – 22 5.50 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 05 34 – 26 7.40 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 05 20 – 14 14.40 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 06 10 – 42 15.40 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Knights Mar 06 30 – 12 0.00 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Dragons Mar 07 18 – 16 7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Mar 10 Bulldogs -3.40
2 Broncos vs. Warriors Mar 11 Broncos 21.40
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Mar 12 Roosters -5.40
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Mar 12 Rabbitohs 11.60
5 Eels vs. Cowboys Mar 12 Cowboys -11.40
6 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 13 Sharks 2.20
7 Storm vs. Titans Mar 13 Storm 14.10
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Mar 14 Wests Tigers 0.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »