Chocolate deficit
2016, NZ Herald, “A new report claims the world is heading for a chocolate deficit” (increased demand, no increase in supply)
There’s not much detail in the story, and I’m not going to provide any more because the report costs £1,700.00 (+VAT if applicable) — so remember, anything you read about it is just marketing. However, there are other useful forms of context.
2013: Daily Mirror, “Chocolate could run out by 2020”
2012: NZ Herald, “Shortage will be costly for chocaholics”
2010: Discovery Channel, “Chocolate Supply Threatened by Cocoa Crisis”
2010: Independent, “Chocolate will be worth its weight in gold in 2020”
2008, CNN,”I think that in 20 years chocolate will be like caviar,”
2007: MSN Money, “World chocolate shortage ahead”
2006: Financial Post, “Possible chocolate shortage ahead”
2002, Discover, “Endangered chocolate”
1998, New York Times, “Chocoholics take note: beloved bean in peril” (predicting a shortfall in “as little as 5-10 years”)
It could be that, like bananas, chocolate really always is in peril, or it could be that falling global inequality will make it much more expensive, or it could be that it’s just a good story.
Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »