Rugby World Cup Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final
Team Ratings for the Rugby World Cup Final
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.
| Current Rating | Rating at RWC Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 28.10 | 29.01 | -0.90 |
| South Africa | 23.16 | 22.73 | 0.40 |
| Australia | 21.25 | 20.36 | 0.90 |
| England | 16.43 | 18.51 | -2.10 |
| Ireland | 15.97 | 17.48 | -1.50 |
| Wales | 13.85 | 13.93 | -0.10 |
| Argentina | 10.87 | 7.38 | 3.50 |
| France | 8.96 | 11.70 | -2.70 |
| Scotland | 5.94 | 4.84 | 1.10 |
| Fiji | -2.19 | -4.23 | 2.00 |
| Samoa | -4.15 | -2.28 | -1.90 |
| Italy | -6.37 | -5.86 | -0.50 |
| Tonga | -8.84 | -6.31 | -2.50 |
| Japan | -9.10 | -11.18 | 2.10 |
| USA | -17.13 | -15.97 | -1.20 |
| Georgia | -17.74 | -17.48 | -0.30 |
| Canada | -17.89 | -18.06 | 0.20 |
| Romania | -19.44 | -21.20 | 1.80 |
| Uruguay | -31.67 | -31.04 | -0.60 |
| Namibia | -33.29 | -35.62 | 2.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 46 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 84.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa vs. New Zealand | Oct 24 | 18 – 20 | -5.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Argentina vs. Australia | Oct 25 | 15 – 29 | -9.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final
Here are the predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa vs. Argentina | Oct 30 | South Africa | 12.30 |
| 2 | New Zealand vs. Australia | Oct 31 | New Zealand | 6.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Is there a full list for RWC 2015 ?
9 years ago
You can get them all with this search but there isn’t a single post with all of them.
9 years ago
Do you have available a more detailed explanation to your statistical methods?
9 years ago
See the comments for this post: https://www.statschat.org.nz/2015/09/28/rugby-world-cup-predictions-29-september-2015-to-03-october-2015
9 years ago
It was really interresting to follow your stats during the RWC. Will you do the RBS 6 this year?
9 years ago
Sorry, no plans to do the Six Nations. Up to now I’m essentially Southern Hemisphere: Super Rugby, NRL, ITM Cup, Currie Cup, plus the last 2 Rugby World Cups.
9 years ago