October 13, 2015

ITM Cup Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Team Ratings for the ITM Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 11.81 10.90 0.90
Tasman 10.77 12.86 -2.10
Taranaki 10.39 7.70 2.70
Auckland 9.63 5.14 4.50
Counties Manukau 2.72 7.86 -5.10
Wellington 2.64 -4.62 7.30
Hawke’s Bay 2.29 -0.57 2.90
Otago 1.73 -4.84 6.60
Waikato -4.56 -6.96 2.40
Bay of Plenty -6.54 -9.77 3.20
Manawatu -6.69 -1.52 -5.20
North Harbour -8.60 -10.54 1.90
Southland -10.02 -6.01 -4.00
Northland -19.56 -3.64 -15.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Otago Oct 07 36 – 54 -15.80 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 08 17 – 35 8.40 FALSE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Waikato Oct 09 30 – 36 14.60 FALSE
4 Canterbury vs. Southland Oct 10 39 – 20 27.30 TRUE
5 Wellington vs. Manawatu Oct 10 33 – 39 17.60 FALSE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Oct 10 16 – 31 -0.30 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Northland Oct 11 36 – 12 12.80 TRUE
8 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 11 43 – 30 11.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the ITM Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 16 Auckland 2.90
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 17 Hawke’s Bay 12.80
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 17 Canterbury 5.40
4 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 17 Wellington 4.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »